Rasmussen: Skeletor, err, Rick Scott 45%, Alex Sink 44%
Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Alex Sink are about as close as they can be in the first Rasmussen Reports survey since Independent Bud Chiles announced his intention to withdraw from Florida’s gubernatorial race.
The latest statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Scott picking up 45% of the vote while Sink draws support from 44%. Nine percent (9%) prefer some other candidate and two percent (2%) are undecided.
Scott and Sink were also close a week ago, when Scott held a small 41% to 36% lead. Chiles picked up eight percent (8%) of the vote at that time.
Prior to the latest survey, support for Scott has stayed within a 35% to 41% range since May. Similarly, Sink’s support has ranged from 31% to 40% in that same period.
When leaners are included in the new totals, the nominees remain essentially even. Sink picks up 48% while Scott earns the vote from 47%.
Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. Early in any campaign, the numbers without leaners are generally more significant. Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matter more. After Labor Day, Rasmussen Reports will report the numbers with leaners as the primary indicators of the campaign.
Sixty-nine percent (69%) of those who favor Sink say they are already certain how they will vote in November. Sixty-five percent (65%) of Scott’s voters say the same, up 10 points from last week.
Both candidates are backed by three out of four voters from their own parties. Sink holds a 44% to 35% edge among voters not affiliated with either major political party.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on September 1, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
If not even Rasmussen can find a way to show Scott with a real lead, then he’s in real trouble.
He can’t spend his way out of this – people already have a negative image of him and everyone’s already seen his ads. Not that he can’t win, but his commercials will only get less effective over time, with diminishing marginal returns.