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Corrine Brown leads Al Lawson, 42%-37%, in new poll of CD 5 race

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The first poll of the Democratic primary race in Florida 5th Congressional District between incumbent Rep. Corrine Brown and former state Senate Al Lawson shows Brown with a slight edge.

When 524 likely Democratic voters were asked who they would vote for, Brown was the choice of 42 percent with Lawson at 37 percent; 21 percent of the voters are undecided.

Brown also has a superior favorable/unfavorable spread to Lawson.

Brown’s favorability comes in at 48 percent, and unfavorability at 19 percent, a range of roughly 2.5:1. She rates highly among all demographics except white voters, where her 34 percent unfavorability exceeds her 22 percent favorable rating.

Lawson, meanwhile, has just 40 percent favorability and 25 percent unfavorability, a spread of not even 2:1. That said, in contrast to Brown’s trouble with white voters, Lawson has no demographics with which his unfavorability exceeds his favorable number.

Each candidate had roughly a third of voters who had no position on either candidate.

Racial breakdowns in the contest present the starkest contrast.

Lawson, who is African-American, was the preferred candidate of 52 percent of whites, with Brown holding the support of just 20 percent of that demographic. The balance of whites are undecided.

Among African-American voters, meanwhile, Brown holds a commanding 52 to 30 percent advantage over her challenger, with the remainder undecided.

Another interesting trend: the older the voter, the more likely they support Brown.

Lawson leads Brown 46 to 29 percent among the 18 to 29-year-old age group, and is tied with Brown with 40 percent support each among the 30 to 49-year-olds.

Yet, the Over 50s are Brown’s to lose. Brown leads Lawson 48 to 38 percent with those who are 50 to 69 years old. With voters 70 and over, however, Brown’s lead is only 37 to 32 percent.

Brown holds a slight lead over Lawson among members of both genders.

Among men, Brown is up 43 to 37 percent. And among women, a similar lead: 42 to 36 percent.

The poll was conducted April 25 via an automated phone call system, encompassing only registered Democrats who voted in the 2012 or 2014 primary election.

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A.G. Gancarski has written a weekly column for Jacksonville’s Folio Weekly since 2003. His writings on politics, culture, and sport have appeared in the Washington Times, the Daily Caller, and the American Conservative. His radio and TV appearances include frequent contributions to WJCT-FM (Jacksonville’s Public Radio station); additionally, he has been a guest on Huff Post Live and the Savage Nation radio show. Gancarski can be reached at a.g.gancarski@gmail.com.

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