Ed Jany, the retired Marine Corps. Colonel running as an independent for Florida’s 13th Congressional District has entered the race with a four-point lead over Republican U.S. Rep. David Jolly.
In a poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Committee and released on Wednesday, Jany leads Jolly 48-44%, with only 8% undecided.
The DCCC was very careful to include biographic statements about each candidate – including mentions of Jany’s rank as a Marine Colonel and 30 years of service in the US Armed Forces. They also touched upon the Republicans’ argument that an independent candidate resides outside the district, and is only running because he was asked to do so by national Democrats.
Jany’s appeal is highest in key blocs of likely November voters, including Independent voters (+36 points over Jolly), women (+12 points over Jolly), and older voters (+6 points over Jolly).
Jany also outperforms a generic Democrat candidate, who ties with a generic Republican candidate, by 7 points.
The automated (IVR) survey of 487 likely general election voters in CD 13 on May 4-5, with a sample that was 37% Democrat, 22% Independent, and 41% Republican. The margin of error was approximately 4.4%.
Results of the IVR poll were similar to another poll recently conducted for the DCCC by Hamilton Campaigns, to gauge positive and negative impressions of the CD 13 race
In that live telephone survey, conducted April 28 – 29, respondents were told about both an independent candidate’s 30-year military background and desire to work across party lines, as well as Jolly’s desire to repeal Obamacare and cut taxes.
With that information, the Independent candidate leads Jolly by +20 percentage points. After hearing negative statements about both candidates, the Independent candidate still leads by +5 percentage points.
The negative statements also included the Independent being from outside of Pinellas County and was supported by Democrats, and that Jolly will work to privatize Social Security and to overturn Roe vs. Wade.
That survey was of 400 registered voters likely to vote in the November 2014 election for Congress in CD 13. In that poll, the margin of error for a sample of this size is +/- 4.9%, at the 95% confidence level.