With candidate qualifying for the special election for House District 2 set to begin on Monday, a new poll of likely Republican primary voters shows that Tea Party leader Mike Hill trails frontrunner Ed Gray, with Scott Miller and Jack Nobles still looking to break out from the rest of the field.
Among Republicans who say they are planning to vote in the May 14 primary, Gray, the former mayor of Gulf Breeze, commands 23% of respondents’ support. Hill receives 17%, Miller 12%, Nobles 9%, Mark Taylor 7%, and David Radcliffe 4%. Twenty-eight percent of respondents were undecided.
Candidate will start filing in the special election to replace state Rep. Clay Ford, a Gulf Breeze Republican who died last month. The qualifying period will start at 8 a.m. Monday and last until noon Tuesday.
Regarding the methodology of this automated survey from St. Pete Polls, the voters polled were chosen at random within the active Republican primary voter population inside of House District 2. To be a part of that population, the voter had to have voted in one of the Republican primaries in 2012. Also, the voter was asked if they were planning on voting in this primary, and only if they answered yes were they asked who they would vote for.
In case there is any doubt about the veracity of the survey numbers provided by Saint Pete Polls, just take a look at the results in Gainesville’s mayoral election. The incumbent there, Craig Lowe, lost to challenger Ed Braddy.
With all 35 precincts reporting, Braddy had 7,258 votes (55 percent) to Lowe’s 6,007 (45 percent).
On the Monday before the election, St. Pete Polls released fresh data showing 40% of registered voters were supporting Braddy, while 36% said they would vote for Lowe.
Bottom line: St. Pete Polls was right. Just as they were so often right about a variety of 2012 races.