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Nate Silver of 538.com upgrades competitiveness of Florida Senate race

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From Nate Silver of 538.com, perhaps the best political site you’re not reading: “The pace of Senate polling has slackened this month as pollsters have turned their attention to next Tuesday’s elections as well as the continuing fight over health care. My attention, likewise, has been concentrated on those other areas. But for the sake of continuity, a very brief Senate rankings update is in order as the clock ticks down on October. I am changing the status of only three races; in each case, I gauge the likelihood of an opposition-party takeover to have become somewhat higher…The final upgrade is in Florida, where Charlie Crist appears to be increasingly vulnerable to Marco Rubio, and where Rubio’s momentum could pick up significantly if Doug Hoffman wins in NY-23 (or comes close enough to trigger a recount, etc.) Now, by no means is Rubio unelectable — I think, in fact, he’d be a mild favorite against likely Democratic nominee Kendick Meek. But the nomination of Rubio would certainly put Florida back on the map as a potentially competitive race. It also might not be completely out of the question that some Democratic alternatives to Meek could be attracted back into the contest if it looks like Crist is going to lose the primary, although I certainly haven’t heard anything to that effect.

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Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.

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