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Steve Vancore

The smartest guy in the room thinks Hillary Clinton will win Florida

in Peter by

With four days before The. Most. Important. Election. Ever. comes to its conclusion, it’s difficult to separate the signal from the noise when it comes to polling and predictions. Right now, everyone is as much an expert about politics as they are in theories about how “Game of Thrones” will end. So many people are nervous about the outcome of the election, they will hang on to a single shred of data — “But Hispanic NPA early voting is up 28…

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Elected unopposed, Florida lawmakers must decide what to do with leftover campaign cash

in Statewide/Top Headlines by

With nearly $3.5 million in the bank and no races to spend it on, some Florida lawmakers are left figuring out what to do with the last of their campaign cash. While their colleagues are sweating out contested races, 42 members of the House and Senate are looking for ways to spend down the war chests they didn’t end up needing. They have a few options, and just about a month left to decide what they’re doing with the extra…

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An inside look at the legislative candidate questionnaire gauntlet

in Statewide/Top Headlines by

The questions are posed by progressive groups and conservative ones; from organizations focused on business, agriculture and education. They come from well-known power brokers and lesser-known influencers. In the months leading up to an election, candidates are asked to fill out dozens of questionnaires detailing their positions. The surveys act as both an educational tool for a candidate, and a vetting tool for the organization. Florida Politics reviewed questionnaires sent to candidates by more than a half-dozen organizations. Some asked…

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Political Ad Watch club unpacks Carlos Beruff’s first TV spot in Senate campaign

in 2017/Top Headlines by

Carlos Beruff’s first TV spot of his Senate campaign falls somewhat short of the mark, at least according to the political pros who make up FloridaPolitics.com’s Political Ad Watch club. In the 30-second “Forget Them,” that began airing statewide earlier this month, the Manatee County developer embraces his outsider position, an issue that has become the cornerstone of Beruff’s campaign. Dressed casually in a button-down shirt and jeans, Beruff is shown stepping out from a dimly lit background as he…

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Today on Context Florida: Marco Rubio, education bang-for-buck, unlikely alliances, OMG moments and the Salt Shaker Test

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Today on Context Florida: Marco Rubio poses as a national security expert. Perhaps among the Republican contenders, he’s the closest thing they’ve got. In which case, Jac VerSteeg says, God help us all. A Washington Post story over the weekend indicates that Rubio’s interest in national security was just a pose from the beginning. As a rising star in the Florida House, Rubio lobbied hard for a spot on an elite committee to frame the state’s response to 9/11. Then, “He…

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Today on Context Florida: John Roberts, educational uniformity, Martin Shkreli’s mother, civil forfeiture and voter enthusiasm

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Today on Context Florida: Martin Dyckman says U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts has hurt minorities, consumers, and democracy. His reputation as a harsh critic of the Voting Rights Act and an advocate for corporations preceded Roberts to his confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee in September 2005. As chief justice, he said, he would be like a baseball umpire impartially calling balls and strikes. “Umpires don’t make the rules. They apply them,” he testified. ” … I come…

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Bob Sparks: Polls have recently missed the mark; how about the GOP presidential field?

in Statewide/Top Headlines by

Political opinion polls can be useful, but they can also be dangerous in a figurative sense. Those thinking the election is over because a poll says so can be in for the shock of their lives. Polls can get it wrong in a big way. We have some recent examples. Going into Tuesday night’s statewide elections in Kentucky, Republican Matt Bevin was trailing Democrat Jack Conway by 5 points in the race for governor, according to the final Bluegrass Poll…

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