While a new poll conducted for the Tampa Bay Times finds Alex Sink leading David Jolly by seven points, a new survey from St. Pete Polls commissioned by this blog shows Jolly leading by two points.
In other words, there is a nine-point difference between the Times‘ and St. Pete Polls’ findings.
The Times‘ poll shows that 42 percent of likely voters in Florida’s 13th Congressional District would vote for Sink, 35 percent for Jolly and 4 percent for Libertarian candidate Lucas Overby,
The Times poll involved live-calls, included respondents using land lines and cell phones, and was conducted by Braun Research. The Times has not released demographic information about its poll.
The survey by St. Pete Polls of likely voters and using a turnout model in line with an off-year election has Jolly at 46 percent and Sink at 44 percent. Libertarian Lucas Overby is at six percent, while three percent of voters are undecided.
The few undecided voters in this race were asked who they preferred and Jolly is leading among them 47 percent to 44 percent.
Meanwhile, there is a comprehensive assessment of this race by Alex Isenstadt of POLITICO.
“Unfolding in one of the few remaining competitive House districts, the contest has become a proxy battle among the national parties for bragging rights heading into the November midterm election. … Each passing day leading up to the March 11 election brings fresh evidence of how badly each side wants a win. Vice President Joe Biden went to Florida on Wednesday to raise money for [Democrat Alex] Sink – a rare foray by the White House into a single House election. Both national parties, plus an array of outside groups, have combined to spend an eye-popping $6 million on TV ads, a figure that’s poised to soar over the next four weeks. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio campaigned with [Republican David] Jolly on Monday, and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor is slated to fundraise for him on Friday. But the intense national interest also reflects a tightening race. At the outset, Sink, boosted by her high name ID and prodigious fundraising, was seen as the clear front-runner. But with recent polls showing the race closing, Democrats aren’t nearly as confident as they once were, and Republicans aren’t nearly as pessimistic.”
Isenstadt’s piece is worth the click.