I know that Peter posted briefly on the day-before polls just out from St. Pete Polls. I wanted to take a few moments to highlight a couple of things that caught my eye. Might be worth remembering as we all go to watch parties tonight and stay glued to the returns reported on Bay News 9 and other outlets.
First, let’s be clear: according to this polling, Kriseman and Foster have it tied up. The margin of error here is +/- 3.8%, which means the numbers next to Ford and Kriseman can go up or down by as much as 3.8%. Right now, the difference between them is being reported at exactly 2%. This thing is between Foster and Kriseman. Kathleen Ford has fallen to a distant 20% (or so) — not even within the margin of error of Foster or Kriseman.
It’s the numbers inside those numbers I want you to keep in the back of your mind tomorrow night. Democrats are behind Kriseman, strongly. He comes in with 49.3%, Foster at barely half of that (or so; don’t forget the margin of error) with 24.8%. Ford’s at the back of the pack again with 20.3% — but don’t totally forget about her just yet. I want you to remember her 20.3% among Democrats in a moment.
As we look at Republican voters, Foster bests the field at 56.9% and Ford gets her second place at 20.6% (.3% better than with Democrats! Perhaps speaking to those tea party groups paid off). Kriseman comes in at just under 20%, which shouldn’t surprise anyone, really. As a quick aside, it is interesting that Foster has vehemently attacked Kriseman as being “too partisan” in this non-partisan mayor’s race, but when it comes to Republicans, it is Foster who takes the greater share than Kriseman does with Democrats. In other words, perhaps it is Kriseman’s message which resonates with voters on both sides of the political spectrum. Look at the numbers and decide for yourself.
At 38.3%, Kriseman bests the field with African American voters. Foster’s anemic 29.6% ought to be causing their campaign fits.
Let’s take a quick look at the Pier question on the ballot, reported by St. Pete Polls:
Right now, nearly 70% of voters have said they voted “yes” to cancel the contract and stop the Lens from being built. 35.7% said they voted “no”.
I was particularly interested in the party response on this question. Republicans voted 67.3% to stop the Lens –a “yes” vote — versus 32.3% who voted “no”.
Democrats, interestingly, have followed a similar pattern, voting “yes” to stop the Lens by a margin of 57.5% to 38.9%. The margin is somewhat narrower than the Republicans who voted “yes” on the pier question, but it is nonetheless sizable.
At this point, I would ask you to once again consider the Democratic support of Kathleen Ford: 20.3%. Ms. Ford’s big issue was voting “yes” to cancel the contract and stop the Lens from being built. If this polling is even close to accurate, shouldn’t Ms. Ford have enjoyed a tsunami-sized wave of support from those who are casting their ballots in favor of canceling the Lens contract? That her campaign failed to tap into what, in this early reporting, looks to be a sizable statement at the polls is nothing less than an epic failure of herculean proportions.
One last thing: Independent voters are following a similar path as Democratic and Republican voters with respect to the Pier/Lens question. Right now, of 124 respondents who voted, 62.1% of them voted “yes” to cancel the contract and stop the Lens, and 34.7% voted “no” on cancelling the contract and want to build the Pier. Whichever watch party you’re going to — even if it is the one on the couch in your living room with popcorn and a root beer — be sure to listen for the political insiders to be talking about which way those independents will break for Foster or Kriseman.
