All signs point to a win tonight for Mitt Romney

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Mark Blumenthal breaks down the latest polling which suggests Mitt Romney will win the Iowa caucuses tonight.

“Yes, the recent surge of support for Rick Santorum is real and could conceivably produce a surprise result Tuesday night. It is also possible that Ron Paul could pull off an upset, particularly if polls have been under-sampling his supporters. But for now, the best evidence available says that Romney is ahead in Iowa and is likely to stay ahead once all the votes are counted.”

Nate Silver forecasts a 42% chance of a Romney win, a 34% chance for Paul and a 20% chance for Santorum.

Harry Enten: “Now, something may go horribly wrong. It’s still tight, and polls have gotten primary/caucus results wrong before. But when Mitt Romney says “We’re going to win this thing”, I gotta say the numbers agree with him.”

Via The Political Wire.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.