It’s not clear whether or not November was a “lost month” for Charlie Crist’s gubernatorial campaign. But until his first fundraising report is released, it’s hard not to wonder if Crist’s campaign accomplished much that could not have been achieved had Crist just filed to run in January.
Of course, there’s a case to be made for the significance of Crist just getting out of the gate, that him launching campaign as a Democrat is a significant enough accomplishment in its own right. There’s some validity to this argument as Crist’s entrance has dried up most support for his only declared rival, former Senator Nan Rich. According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Crist leads Rich by several touchdowns, making it unlikely Rich will be more than a nuisance to Crist instead of a true drag on his campaign. With little oxygen for her campaign, Rich will not be playing the role of Pat Buchanan to Crist’s George H. Bush in 1992 when the insurgent Buchanan weakened the eventual winner Bush by winning the New Hampshire primary and consistently taking a third of the primary vote.
Still, the tightness of the race — Crist leads Scott 47% to 40% — confirms that just being an alternative to Scott won’t be enough for Crist to win.
For his part, Scott should feel very comfortable right now. Despite 53% of Floridians saying he does not deserve re-election, Scott-world probably thinks it has Crist right where it wants him.
Criticism of Crist’s first month on the campaign trail has not reached the “worried” level, but there should be concern that Scott’s re-election committee raised four times what Crist’s committee did since Crist launched his campaign. No one expected Crist to keep up with Scott in the fundraising department, but it’s telling that John Morgan and his national network of trial attorneys have not contributed their first $1 million. It’s not clear what they are waiting for, especially with Senator Bill Nelson breathing down Crist’s neck, threatening to enter the race if Crist falters.
If nothing else, Crist should have accomplished this in November. Instead, the Nelson rumors will circulate at holiday parties like canape trays.
And if the fundraising has been less than spectacular, what else does Crist have to show for November? A solid announcement event, sure, but what else? An earned media win? An unexpected endorsement? Nope
A vibrant social network? Not according to this post from social media analyst Charles McGuinness, who lays out a point-by-point criticism of Crist’s fledgling social media efforts. McGuinness likens Crist to the popular bookstores of the 1990s and 2000s.
“I’ve heard it said that Charlie Crist is good at retail politics. Borders Books was good at retail commerce, too, but they just demolished the abandoned Borders building in Winter Park,” writes McGuinness. “That’s what happens to your business model when you’re not good at the Internet.”
Crist should have spent November building a consistent social media network. Instead, it appears as if Crist learned very little from his 2010 loss to Marco Rubio.
The pushback from Crist-world on its low-gear start is 1) it’s a long time before November 2014 and 2) campaign manager Bill Hyres is just coming aboard after directing Bill de Blasio to a win in last month’s New York City mayoral race.
Sure, there eleven months before November of 2014, but Crist HAS TO put to bed the idea of Nelson entering the race and he has to do that within the next six weeks to two months. It should have been put to bed already, but it’s not, so add it to the top of the priorities and accomplish it.
As for Hyres coming aboard, he will receive a lot of latitude because of his recent track record. He’s also reportedly a disciplinarian. What’s most interesting to this Cristologist is just how different Hyres appears to be compared to Crist’s previous campaign managers and chiefs of staff. If I lined up George LeMieux, Erik Eikenberg, Shane Strum, and Hyres and asked you which would did not belong with the rest, the easy pick would be Hyres.
Still, Hyres has his work cut out for him, especially with senior consultant Steve Scahle embarking on an overseas trip in December.
Related articles across the web
