Calculating the impact of the Bush tax cuts expiring and the scheduled spending cuts

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The CBO calculates the impact of the Bush tax cuts expiring and the scheduled spending cuts. TPM charts the possibilities:

Ezra Klein imagines the political implications from the “No Fiscal Restraint” option:

[4.4 percent growth in 2013] sounds fairly optimistic to me. But let’s assume, for a minute, it isn’t, and that it actually happens. Then either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, without introducing any major new policies of their own, would be presiding over 4+ percent growth. Politically, that would be huge for them and their party. The midterms would likely be a cakewalk — you don’t want to change horses mid-gallup, do you? And it would likely have the effect of legitimizing whatever their platform was.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.