With no Democrat on the ballot, Libertarian Lucas Overby trails U.S. Rep. David Jolly by 16 points

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Without facing a Democratic rival, Republican U.S. Rep. David Jolly takes a 17-point lead over Libertarian Lucas Overby in a November rematch for Pinellas County’s 13th Congressional District, according to the latest StPetePolls survey.

The poll, commissioned by SaintPetersBlog.com, found David Jolly leading Overby by a margin of 47-31 percent, with nearly 22 percent of voters undecided so far.

Tampa Bay Times columnist John Romano suggests that it is “nutty” to think Overby will reap nearly 50 percent of the vote since independent Ed Jany dropped out of the CD 13 race in early May. Romano predicts an interesting “mating dance” coming between Overby and Democrats in months leading to the November race against David Jolly.

The Libertarian has already siphoned off most of the Democratic votes, running at 43 percent among Ds. Only 27 percent have broken to Jolly, while 30 percent remain undecided.

David Jolly receives substantial GOP support, with 71 percent of Republicans supporting the incumbent and only 17 percent for Overby; 12 percent are unsure.

Independents are also leaning towards the Republican, giving the newly elected House member almost 41 percent, but one-third (33 percent) are going for Overby, with 26 percent remain unsure.

“His hope is that by midsummer he is polling in the high 30s,” Romano says, “which might create some buzz among Democrats who are solidly anti-Jolly.”

Summer isn’t here yet, and Overby has already cracked 30percent, so it maybe its not “nutty’ to think Overby has a reasonable chance against David Jolly.

The automated phone call system contacted 1121 likely voters Florida on Wednesday June 4, surveying Pinellas County registered voters who are likely to cast a ballot in November, with a margin of error of almost +/- 3 percentage points.


Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.