Chart: Why Illinois primary is close

in Uncategorized by

Electionate runs down the county-by-county demographics in Illinois. Bottom line:

Perhaps no state is more representative of the national GOP than Illinois. No, it doesn’t include sparsely populated, Paul-friendly western highlands or the Mormons of greater Utah, but it has nearly everything else. The Chicago area is among the wealthiest in the country, while southern Illinois, which is physically and politically closer to Alabama and Mississippi than the Windy City, is dominated by culturally southern, working-class, evangelicals. Compared to Ohio and Michigan, Illinois is slightly less evangelical and more affluent, which points toward a narrow Romney advantage.

And what has been remarkable this year is how demographics have determined the final vote almost perfectly so far. No candidate has shifted his demographic appeal much, and no momentum has moved voters in one candidate’s direction for very long. That’s why this seems so endless. It’s a movie without a plot; it’s a themeless pudding.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.