Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts winners and losers in elections often more accurately than even the most seasoned pundits. The website run by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics is calling Charlie Crist as the victor in this year’s gubernatorial blood bath.
But it wasn’t always that way. Crystal Ball has changed its prediction from a toss-up to a Democratic lean in favor of Crist over incumbent Rick Scott.
“Gov. Rick Scott and former Republican Gov. Charlie Crist have waged an ugly battle for the Sunshine State governorship. Although Crist holds an extremely slim lead in the poll averages, there’s little question that the incumbent Scott could wind up winning. Still, we have to pick someone, and what evidence our sources have provided us suggests that Crist is, ever-so-slightly, the better bet,” the latest predictions read.
Crystal Ball doesn’t look specifically at state legislature races, but does look at the numbers holistically. A graphic showing which states have Republican-controlled legislatures shows an overwhelmingly red map of the U.S. The website and its authors note that the layout of that partisan divide isn’t likely to change this mid-term under a Democratic president. Another graph shows that for all but two mid-term elections since the early 1900s, the party holding the White House fared miserably in mid-term elections as it pertains to state legislative races.
Sobato’s Crystal Ball also predicts that Republicans will regain a majority in the U.S. Senate and increase their chokehold on the House of Representatives. It predicts a gain of 8 Republicans in the Senate – creating a 53-47 margin – and a net increase of 9 members of the GOP in the House for a majority 243-192.
As for Governors, the Crystal Ball predicts Republicans will still control a majority of states, but not as many as they do now. Currently 29 states have Republican leaders. The new predictions show 3 GOP governors getting the boot and replaced by two Democrats and one independent. Crist is one Democrat. The other is Paul Davis in Kansas. The predict Alaska governor Sean Parnell losing to independent Bill Walker.