Democrats will take back the House, Romney will win Pennsylvania and other such silliness

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The worse Mitt Romney is doing in the national polls, the harder the push-back is from Republicans determined not to face reality.

As Charlie Cook explains leading Democratic and Republican pollsters and strategists privately say that the Obama lead is around 4 or 5 points and is neither widening nor narrowing. The convention bounces have dissipated, but Romney’s negatives remain quite high and are not diminishing. In the Gallup three-week super-samples –almost 10,000 interviews — the percentage of Democrats saying that they will definitely vote has moved up to the point that it is now virtually tied with Republicans.

Yet, the Romney campaign will have none of it.

Romney’s political director Rich Beeson told BuzzFeed the campaign’s internal polls are telling a different story than the public polls. “The public polls are what the public polls are. I kind of hope the Obama campaign is basing their campaign decisions on the public polls… I have great faith in our data.”

Pundit Dick Morris double-down on the ridiculous today, telling Sean Hannity that, “barring any debate debacle,” Mitt Romney will win the presidential election by “4 or 5 points” and will win Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia and Pennsylvania.

Ohio, huh?

Alexander Burns sees no other state “as daunting – or as alarming to other members of his party – as the state of Ohio”:

This morning’s Washington Post poll found Obama leading Romney by 8 points in the Buckeye State. That’s on the high end of recent margins, but the trend is unambiguously in the president’s favor: Obama was up 5 in an Ohio Newspaper Organization poll, up 4 in a Purple Strategies poll, and up 7 in a Fox News poll and an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Poll. That’s all in the last two weeks.

Nate Cohn isn’t expecting a Romney rebound in Ohio:

[A] quick look at Romney’s favorability ratings in Ohio suggests that Romney’s chances of a comeback in the state are worse than Obama’s modest 4-point lead suggests. In post-DNC polling, Romney’s unfavorable ratings exceeded 49 percent in every poll of likely voters. On average, his favorability rating is underwater by an average of 7 points, 43-50, and that’s with the benefit of an outlying Rasmussen poll showing Romney’s favorables at 50 percent.

As for my home state of Florida — another Romney must-win — that doesn’t look much better for him, either.

Of course, Romney supporters are not the only ones oblivious to reality. There are also those who believe the Democrats will take back the U.S. House.

Eric McGhee throws a big bucket of iced water on these true-believers:

Pollster suggests that if the Democrats win every toss-up, they will gain 11 seats.  We can also look at expectations of handicappers, which are often quite accurate.  For example, take Larry Sabato’s House forecasts.  If we assume that the Democrats win every seat that is solidly, likely, or leaning Democratic as well as half of the 14 toss-ups, then they would control 196 seats, for a gain of 3.  If they win every toss-up, they would gain 10 seats.  The Cook Political Report suggests something similar.  If the Democrats won all of the seats they are favored to win, as well as every toss-up, they would gain 14 seats.

So while Pollster, Sabato, and Cook can suggest larger Democratic gains than our model predicts, they currently suggest little chance that the Democrats will take back the House.  Moreover, their largest gains assume a sweep for Democrats of all the toss-up races; without that clean sweep, their predictions are entirely in line with our own.

Of course, if you’re a Republican who refuses to face reality, there is this solution:

I present UnSkewedPolls.com, the best new website on the political Internet. UnSkewed Polls finally removes the “liberal media bias” from every single national opinion poll, and it turns out that “unskewing” them means “making it so that Romney is ahead by a lot.” Rick Perry approves!

Actually, there is some basis to Republican complaints.

They, probably rightly, contend that pollsters are interviewing too many Democrats — and too few Republicans or independents — and artificially inflating the Democratic candidates’ performance. Pollsters counter that the results they are finding reflect slight changes in public sentiment — and, moreover, adjusting their polls to match arbitrary party-identification targets would be unscientific.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.