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Donald Trump leads Jeb Bush, 24 percent-13 percent, in new CNN national poll

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A CNN/ORC national poll released Tuesday morning shows that even after his uneven performance at the first GOP debate and subsequent controversy with Fox News’ Megyn Kelly, Donald Trump remains the dominant candidate in the Republican presidential race, getting 24 percent of the vote.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is second with 13 percent. Retired pediatric neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson is third with 9 percent.

U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker are next at 8 percent. U.S. Sen. Rand Paul is at 6 percent. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are at 5 percent, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is in 10th place with 4 percent.

Bush has seen his favorability ratings drop since Trump’s entry into the race. He held the top spot in the field in most CNN/ORC polls between last fall and Trump’s entry into the race in June. Overall, 56 percent hold an unfavorable view of the former Florida governor,  and 42 percent of Republican voters have a negative impression. That’s an increase in negative views among all adults (up from 43 percent since July) and among Republican voters (up from 34 percent unfavorable).

As has been the case with Trump in most polls since he surged to the lead in every poll taken over the past month, there are still downsides for the New York City businessman/celebrity. A majority of Republicans — 58 percent — say the party would have a better chance to win in 2016 with any candidate other than the former Celebrity Apprentice star being the nominee — and that’s the case with 72 percent of those who currently aren’t supporting Trump.

However, the pollsters say that Trump is impressing on a variety of other questions asked in the survey. The poll shows that 45 percent say that they trust Trump more than any other Republican candidate on the economy — up 25 points since June; 44 percent say they trust Trump over the others on illegal immigration — up 30 points since June — and 32 percent trust him most to handle ISIS. No other candidate comes close on any of these issues.

On the economy and illegal immigration, Trump is far and away the top choice even among those Republicans who support someone else for the nomination (33 percent who say they will most likely vote for someone else say Trump is their most trusted on the economy, 29 percent say so on illegal immigration). Trump is also most trusted on social issues; 19 percent say he’s their top choice to handle that. Bush follows at 15 percent.

The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone Aug. 13-16 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. The sample included 466 registered voters who are Republicans or independents who lean toward the Republican Party. For results among those Republican voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. For results among the full sample, it is 3 points.

Mitch Perry has been a reporter with Extensive Enterprises since November of 2014. Previously, he served as five years as the political editor of the alternative newsweekly Creative Loafing. He also was the assistant news director with WMNF 88.5 FM in Tampa from 2000-2009, and currently hosts MidPoint, a weekly talk show, on WMNF on Thursday afternoons. He began his reporting career at KPFA radio in Berkeley. He's a San Francisco native who has now lived in Tampa for 15 years and can be reached at mitch.perry@floridapolitics.com.

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