Fiscal cliff poses dangers for Florida

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Without a deal, the combination of tax hikes and spending cuts would reduce Florida’s economic output by $16 billion by the fourth quarter of 2013 and lead to a loss of 130,000 to 140,000 jobs, according to a University of Florida economist.

That’s enough to set off a mild recession and an uptick in the state’s unemployment rate, said UF’s David Denslow, who made the projections after reviewing a Congressional Budget Office assessment of the nationwide impact and applying it to Florida.

On the other hand, he said, averting the cliff could have a rallying effect.

“The signal will be an increase in the stock market, giving people a little bit of a wealth effect,” Denslow said. “In Florida, the big problem is going to remain the housing market, which is stabilizing and improving to be sure, but as a [big] foreclosure state we’ve got a long pipeline to be worked out.”

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Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.