No one in Bill Foster’s inner-cicle wants to say it aloud, but not only is there a distinct possibility the Mayor may not be re-elected, Hizzoner may not even make it out of the primary versus Kathleen Ford and Rick Kriseman.
At this point, Ford is almost a lock to make it out of the primary; she may very well finish in first place on August 27, especially with the vote on the new St. Petersburg Pier on the ballot. The question then becomes whether Foster or Kriseman joins Ford in the general election.
Most of the public polling shows Foster either in first or second place and well ahead of Kriseman. However, my instincts tell me that Foster is in bigger trouble than the polls suggest. First of all, Kriseman has room to grow, whereas Foster’s support, at least in the primary, has hit a ceiling.
In the coming weeks, I believe you will see the attacks against Ford ratcheted up. And when they do, Ford’s stratospheric favorabililty ratings will return to Earth and some voters — just some, not even a third of Ford’s base — will begin to look elsewhere. This is especially true of the African American voters backing Ford who have never been comfortable with her and are only doing so now because Goliath Davis is telling them to. That may not change, but I think it will and some black voters will seek to wash their hands of both Ford and Foster.
Kriseman will also have the most money and probably the best advertising campaign of the three major candidates, so that will likely gain him a few points. As will the endorsement of the Tampa Bay Times, which is sure to recommend Kriseman over two candidates it despises. The newspaper’s endorsement has to count for something.
Like I said, Kriseman has room to grow. Foster, on the other hand, is struggling to hang on to his base.
The Mayor’s handling of what to do with both the old and new Pier has been politically disastrous. By vacillating and waffling, Foster has managed to alienate just about everyone. The ‘Stop the Lens’ crowd is angry with him because it believes he’s trying to thwart its efforts, while the Chamber/Downtown Partnership/old guard considers Foster oafishly ineffective.
While the debate over the Pier sucks up all of the oxygen in the city, Foster’s administration is crumbling away. Speculation is swirling around City Hall that key staffers are leaving because they fear Foster will not be re-elected later this year, reported Mark Puente in May.
As for his re-election campaign, Foster has stumbled out of the gate, raising during the last fundraising reporting period less than what Darden Rice, a City Council candidate, raised in her race. Foster’s campaign is being held together by the noblest Roman of them all, Ed Montanari. But beyond that, Foster is relying on consultant Jack Hebert and former City Councilmember Virginia Littrell, who is Foster’s aide-de-camp and handles his scheduling.
While I am not convinced Foster has dropped out of the top two, his campaign is taking on water. Here are five steps Foster can take right now to right the ship.
1. Fire political consultant Jack Hebert. Yes, Hebert was Foster’s consultant in 2003 and 2009, so it’s hard to leave the one who brought you, but Hebert’s lack of understanding St. Pete politics is beginning to show. Foster’s campaign has no direction, no message, no real strategy. Is it a half-full, the city is moving forward strategy? Or is it a half-empty, Foster steered the city through tough times strategy? The campaign doesn’t know because Foster doesn’t know because his consultant is not connected enough to the city to know. In small-town St. Pete, Foster is doing himself no favors listening to an adviser who does not enjoy coming south of Ulmerton Boulevard.
2. Hire Nick Hansen. In 2009, Foster brought on Hansen after he became available after Deveron Gibbons lost in the primary. In the past, this blog has been critical of Hansen’s efforts in city campaigns, but that was before Hansen directed Jeff Brandes 2010 upset. Since that time, Hansen has become one of the most respected consultants in the region. Also, Foster gets along with and respects Hansen. It may be expensive, but it’s time for Foster to switch horses in midstream.
3. Apologize to the black community. Foster should pay for staging a major event in Midtown where he should publicly failing to live up to the standard he ridiculously set for himself when he said he wanted to be the city’s first black mayor. Then he needs to lay out a concrete plan for what he would do in a second term to improve the lives of those in African American community. Oh, and no more behind-closed-doors meetings.
4. Raise $100,000 by June 30. Foster raised a paltry $25K during the first quarter of 2013. He needs ten times that to win re-election. The next reporting period ends on June 30. If Foster isn’t hovering near six figures by then, it’s likely he won’t have the resources to run an effective negative campaign against Ford or a full-throated, spirited campaign against Kriseman.
5. Make peace with Rick Baker and beg him to endorse you early. This entire election, heck even the dynamics of city government, are shaped by the fact that Baker and Foster don’t get along as well as they should. Case in point is ‘The Lens.’ Because it’s not Baker’s idea, he’s never been supportive of it. And because the Pier Taskforce started under Baker, Foster was late in taking ownership of the issue. Out of this confusion comes Kathleen Ford, who threatens to undo the progress of the last two decades. The only way Foster can hold off Ford is with Baker’s tacit support. But Foster is too proud to ask for it, much less beg for it early.
But that’s what he needs to do to win. He needs Baker to help him raise money. He needs Baker to help him in the black community. He needs Baker to keep their mutual allies from jumping ship. Swallow your pride, Bill, and ask for Rick for his help.
If not Baker, Foster needs to ask someone — anyone — for help. There’s still time to fix his campaign, but only if he believes its in trouble.
