In the nation’s first primary state, Republican Rand Paul takes a slight lead in possible 2016 presidential candidates, according to a new Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire Poll.
However, taking out 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney from consideration. Then, Paul ties with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, with each receiving 16 percent of likely Republican primary voters.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush comes in third, with 14 percent.
When included, Romney, who regularly insists he is not planning a third run for president, leads the pack with 30 percent. Paul comes in second with 11 percent; Christie is third (9 percent) and Bush is fourth, with 8 percent.
Paul may be a controversial choice because of his Tea Party ties, say Washington Republicans, but not by New Hampshire Republicans. His positive numbers lead the prospective 2016 Republican field – viewed positively by 65 percent of likely primary voters, and only 19 percent negatively.
Those favorable numbers are roughly the same as those of U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte from New Hampshire.
“Some of that is Rand Paul and a lot of it is Ron Paul,” said former New Hampshire attorney general Tom Rath to Bloomberg Politics.
“I would think that Rand Paul would have significant appeal in New Hampshire because there is a very strong libertarian streak in our state,” said Manchester Democratic activist Terry Shumaker.
In contrast, just 50 percent of likely Republican primary voters view Christie favorably, while about one third view him unfavorably — the highest of the 10 possible Republican candidates polled.
That unease mirrors questions of a Christie candidacy, particularly whether Iowa and New Hampshire voters will accept his brash style. Christie made national news last month after telling a constituent critical of New Jersey’s superstorm Sandy response to “sit down and shut up.”
“It’s that aspect of the persona that has given people some pause,” said Rath, a 2012 Romney supporter. “It’s an issue you hear come up with people.”
In theoretical 2016 match-ups, Bloomberg reporter John McCormick notes that Hillary Clinton could draw some Republican primary voters. Against Jeb Bush, Clinton could siphon as much as 11 percent of Republican primary votes and 12 percent against Paul.
