As a dozen canvassers were finishing their rounds in a northeast Tallahassee neighborhood, Democratic congressional candidate Gwen Graham was launching a second wave of door knockers in the Capital City’s Midtown section.
Graham’s challenge of Congressman Steve Southerland is nearing an end and the contest is dead even; national pundits say the race is a tossup. Both parties think their candidate can win and an estimated $7 million from outside of the district has been spent to either defend or flip the seat.
“Getting out the vote effort is what is going to win this election; I appreciate you all taking time out on a Sunday afternoon to canvass the different neighborhoods and make sure people understand how important it is that they vote,” Graham told the group of 20-somethings as they pick up a packet containing, names and addresses of voters tagged as likely supporters.
Graham and Democrat statewide are employing the metrics and algorithms President Barack Obama’s campaign developed to identify and engage likely Democratic voters. The effort in the 2nd District has been backed by visits from President Bill Clinton, Congressman John Lewis and a free Jimmy Buffett concert to rally supporters to in the words of Rep. Allen Williams “find 5, 10, 15 additional voters.”
Speaking to reporters after 18 of her canvassers fanned out around Lake Ella and into the city’s Los Robles and Lafayette neighborhoods Graham said she felt her campaign executed its plan well and that she felt “good” about where things stood and noted polling indicated a slight lead.
“But the only poll that counts; how people vote on Nov. 4,” said Graham.
The final early voting numbers for Leon County indicate the Democrats GOTV increased the number of voters compared to the last mid-term election — 2010. In-person early voting showed jumped by 9,295 while absentee voting recorded a 971 increase. Conventional wisdom is Democrats vote early in-person and Republicans by mail with an absentee ballot.
Southerland’s victory margin two years ago was 18,000 votes.
The preliminary final early voting numbers for the 2nd Congressional District posted on-line by Election Supervisors, three of the 14 counties have yet to compile final numbers, show 57,308 Democrats, 43,439 Republicans and 10,865 voters not affiliated with either of the two major parties have cast ballots.
