John Hussman makes the case that the U.S. economy “has entered a recession that will later be marked as having started here and now.”
“Very often, the first real-time negative GDP print occurs about two quarters after the recession actually begins. It is only later that the data are revised to show an earlier downturn. For that reason, it’s important to pay attention to the joint action of numerous economic data points, rather than selecting any specific indicator as an ‘acid test.’… We can’t rule out further attempts at monetary heroism from the Fed… It’s true that in 2010 and 2011, one or two quarters of support for GDP growth was enough to push off emerging economic weakness for a while. At present, the economic headwinds are much more serious, particularly given European strains. So aside from the hope for transitory speculative benefits, it’s not at all clear that further quantitative easing would be effective in halting a U.S. recession that, by our estimates, has already begun.”
Via The Political Wire.