Miami attorney Daniel Diaz Leyva widens the lead over incumbent state Rep. Jose Javier Rodriguez to eight points in the House District 112 race, according to a new survey from StPetePolls.
Democrat Rodriguez won the seat by only 7 percent in 2012, and momentum now seems to be favoring Leyva, a well-funded Republican.
In the Oct. 28 survey of likely voters, Leyva leads Rodriguez 51 to 42 percent, with just under eight percent undecided.
In an earlier poll, taken Oct. 14, Leyva received just over 49 percent; Rodriguez took 44 percent, with a little more than 6 percent undecided.
In addition to strong GOP support (77 percent), Leyva also siphons off nearly 21 percent of Democrats, as well as 49 percent of independents.
Rodriguez, in comparison, receives almost 75 percent of the Democratic base, 15 percent of Republicans and just over 38 percent of independents.
According to Matt Florell of StPetePolls, polling results were weighted to reflect proportions of active voter population for House District 112, based on turnout numbers in the 2010 race. Although both the Oct. 14 and Oct. 28 polls weighted slightly Republican, final numbers are likely to change, particularly if Democrats are successful in their push for a higher turnout.
“In other races (like HD-112) where the Republican slant is so significant compared to registered voter demographics,” Florell said in an email, “there is more likelihood that the Democratic candidate can overcome his single-digit deficit if the turnout among South Florida Hispanics is much better than it was in 2010.”
In the governor’s race, HD 112 likely voters give Republican Gov. Rick Scott a 12-point lead over Republican-turned-Democrat Charlie Crist, by a 51-39 margin. In the Oct. 14 poll, it was eight points, 51 to 42 percent.
Libertarian Adrian Wyllie gained two points, to 6 percent and another 4 percent remain undecided.
StPetePolls used an automated phone call system to get a sample size of 264 likely voters in HD 112. The poll, commissioned by SaintPetersBlog, took names of registered from voter lists supplied by the state of Florida as of Sept. 4. Results have a margin of error of +/- 6 points and a 95 percent confidence level.