Nate Cohn is leery of Marco Rubio.
In the best-case scenario, Rubio’s attractive candidacy and appeal among Latinos might allow the Republican nominee to match Romney’s historic performance among white voters and exceed 40 percent of the Latino vote. But while that would have given George W. Bush a clean win eight years ago, a similar performance might only allow Rubio to win by an extremely narrow margin. Demographic changes have shifted in the Democrats’ favor, and even exceptional performances by candidates attempting to reassemble the Bush coalition may no longer prove sufficient to win national elections. From this perspective, Rubio’s electoral appeal isn’t just limited, but dangerous to Republicans. It threatens to stifle the GOP’s incipient reckoning with the party’s appeal and its attempt to build a new and more viable electoral pathway for Republicans.
More from Cohn here.
Yesterday, Silver calculated that, among “Republican presidential nominees since 1960, in fact, only the extraordinarily conservative Barry Goldwater … rates as being more conservative than Mr. Rubio.”