How the conventions skew the polls

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Nate Silver expects small convention bounces:

[M]y research suggests that the volatility of polls before the party conventions is correlated with the magnitude of the convention bounces. Volatile polling years seem to predict larger convention bounces, but they are smaller when the polling has been more stable heading into the conventions. Since the polls have been especially steady this year, we should probably expect below-average convention bounces: perhaps more like four percentage points rather than the long-term average of around seven points.

Because the conventions “introduce a lot of noise into the system” Silver advises “reading the polls with a more of a jaundiced eye during the next several weeks.”

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.