Is Republican incumbent Keith Perry in trouble in House District 21?

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Is Republican incumbent Keith Perry in danger of losing in House District 21?

If the numbers from absentee and early voting are any indication, the answer is yes.

Perry, R-Gainesville, is trying to win another term in Tallahassee in a substantially redrawn district. Perry’s current district starts in the Gainesville area and heads south into Marion and Levy counties; the new district also starts in the Gainesville area but goes west into Gilchrist and Dixie counties.

Perry faces Gainesville attorney Andrew Morey, who won the Democratic primary despite being outspent by his opponent, Aaron Bosshardt. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the redrawn district, and 2010 Democratic gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink and 2008 presidential candidate Barack Obama carried the area.

And, after reviewing the current absentee and early vote numbers, the district looks like it will be going for Obama in 2012.

Through Sunday, 40,576 HD 21 voters have cast a ballot. Of those, 20,286 — 50% — are Democrats, while 13,847 — just 34% — are Republicans. Independents make up the other 16% of the vote.

By that measure, it will take a lot of ticket-splitting for Perry to return to Tallahassee. Not saying it’s not possible, but the numbers don’t lie.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.