Is ‘The Recovery’ here?

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Is the recover here? No, not that recovery, ‘The Recovery’?

Daniel Gross analyzes the latest Census Bureau report (PDF) on retail numbers:

One by one, over the past two years, the gears that make the mighty consumer engine go have been engaged. And the data points to an ironic twist in the trajectory of the U.S. economy. Businesses, which thrived and boomed in the early years of this subpar economy, are now increasingly taking a backseat to increasingly upbeat consumers.

Bill McBride notes that September housing starts were up, hitting a four-year high:

Right now starts are on pace to be up about 25% from 2011.

Joe Weisenthal argues the “big story of the moment” is “the full-on comeback in everything related to consumers and households.”

Clive Crook throws cold water:

The International Monetary Fund has just released new forecasts. Global growth this year, fourth quarter over fourth quarter, is expected to be just 3.0 percent — less than last year’s 3.2 percent, and cut from the already puny 3.7 percent the IMF’s economists were predicting for 2012 last spring. They’ve cut the forecast for growth in the U.S. by 0.3 percentage points, and they now expect the U.S. economy to expand even more slowly this year (1.7 percent) than it did in 2011 (2.0 percent).

Jared Bernstein worries that the jobless rate is “too high to boost workers’ bargaining power and you can see that in the paychecks.” But he believes that “things are slowly getting better and Romney’s claims to the contrary may be drowned out by this reality”:

I suspect there’s NCD—nontrivial cognitive dissonance–between Romney’s portrait of the economy and many people’s experience of it, especially around some of the more tangible aspects, like housing values and mortgage rates.

Via The Daily Dish.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.