'It is hard to envision anything other than a substantial decline in turnout' in 2012

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Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, expects a substantial decline in turnout as many Obama ’08 voters stay home:

“Democratic presidential year turnout in 2008 reached its highest level (33.0 percent of eligibles) since the landslide victory of Lyndon Johnson in 1964 (38.2 percent) … [I]t is virtually certain that there will be a substantial drop-off in the level of youth participation and voting in 2012. … The election is likely to offer a minimum of hope and a maximum of televised invective – likely between the perception of a failed president and a party of failed ideas magnified by an unprecedented level of scurrilous and vitriolic and often ad hominem television advertising. Against this backdrop, it is hard to envision anything other than a substantial decline in turnout.”

Read Gans’ 11-page report here.

H/t to the Politico Playbook.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.