“Democratic presidential year turnout in 2008 reached its highest level (33.0 percent of eligibles) since the landslide victory of Lyndon Johnson in 1964 (38.2 percent) … [I]t is virtually certain that there will be a substantial drop-off in the level of youth participation and voting in 2012. … The election is likely to offer a minimum of hope and a maximum of televised invective – likely between the perception of a failed president and a party of failed ideas magnified by an unprecedented level of scurrilous and vitriolic and often ad hominem television advertising. Against this backdrop, it is hard to envision anything other than a substantial decline in turnout.”
Read Gans’ 11-page report here.
H/t to the Politico Playbook.