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Jeb Bush falling, Marco Rubio rising in new Iowa poll

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The Iowa caucuses are likely to be dominated by social conservatives, so nobody is expecting Jeb Bush to excel in the first presidential contest in 2016.

But seventh place?

That’s where he is currently in a new Quinnipiac survey released this morning.

Once again, neighboring governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin leads in Iowa — in this poll he garners 25 percent support. Trailing by double-digits and tied for second place is Marco Rubio and Rand Paul at 13 percent each. Ted Cruz is at 12 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (who won Iowa in 2008) is at 11 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson is at 7 percent, and then comes Bush with 5 percent. No other candidate is above 3 percent, and 6 percent are undecided.

Bush does lead in one dubious metric: 25 percent of caucus goers say they would definitely not vote for him. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is next with 20 percent, followed by Paul at 10 percent.

The former Florida governor’s favorability rating is upside down in Iowa, with a negative 39-45 percent favorability rating. 45 percent say he’s not conservative enough.

Meanwhile, although he still trails in Iowa, Rubio continues to up his numbers: Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants have a 69-9 percent favorable opinion of Rubio, the best score in the GOP field. The Florida senator’s positions on the issues are “about right,” 65 percent say, also the best in the field. He also scores high when asked if he’s honest and trustworthy (72-13 percent), a strong leader (70-14 percent) and if he cares for voter needs and problems (72-15 percent).

Quinnipiac University surveyed 667 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants between  April 25-May 4,  with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

Mitch Perry has been a reporter with Extensive Enterprises since November of 2014. Previously, he served as five years as the political editor of the alternative newsweekly Creative Loafing. He also was the assistant news director with WMNF 88.5 FM in Tampa from 2000-2009, and currently hosts MidPoint, a weekly talk show, on WMNF on Thursday afternoons. He began his reporting career at KPFA radio in Berkeley. He's a San Francisco native who has now lived in Tampa for 15 years and can be reached at

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