Last week, Jeb Bush finished on a high note, supporters say, enjoying a post-debate bump that keeps the former governor odds-on favorite for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination.
As proof, Right to Rise USA – the super PAC supporting the Republican candidate — released a wrap-up of the week featuring images, statistics, and predictions, each highlighting the extent of Bush’s post-debate boost.
First, the group produced a YouTube video compilation to recap media coverage praising Bush’s performance following Wednesday’s three-hour marathon GOP debate. Much of the coverage centered on accolades over the way Bush handled the record of his brother – former President George W. Bush.
Although pictures may be worth a thousand words – and video even more – it’s numbers that tell a deeper story of Jeb’s good week.
A post-debate poll of 95 top GOP party leaders and experts show Bush finishing second – behind Carly Fiorina – among debate finishers. James A. Barnes, a co-author of the highly respected Almanac of American Politics, conducted the poll, with 17 percent of respondents saying Bush won the debate (Fiorina received 49 percent).
However, it is the prediction market – with real money on the line – that continues to give odds in Bush’s favor.
In the PredictIt post-debate market, Bush remains in first place (rising 4 cents, to $.37 a share) to win the GOP nomination among all announced and potential candidates. Fellow Floridian Marco Rubio comes in second at $.32, a two-cent rise.
PredictIt is the New Zealand-based prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events using a “continuous double auction” to sell shares in a particular market.
“Our job is to study the wisdom of the crowd,” says the PredictIt website, “yours is to make your most educated prediction.”
Double action means that for every person placing a bet, another person must also bet against it. The site then groups the predictions in markets based on similar events.
The current PredictIt market for the 2016 GOP presidential race is at PredictIt.org.