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Jeb Bush reclaims lead over Marco Rubio in prediction markets

in 2017/Top Headlines by

Jeb Bush has reclaimed the lead for highest probability of winning the GOP presidential nomination, according to CNN and Pivit, the live political prediction game.

As of Friday, the former governor is back in front with 29 percent odds, pulling ahead of fellow Floridian Marco Rubio, who is slightly behind with 27 percent. Real-estate tycoon Donald Trump – the Republican front-runner in many polls – is third at 10 percent.

CNN’s digital group has been tapping the wisdom of crowds to predict the 2016 election with a Political Prophecy contest powered by Pivit, a predictive market system from the New York-based startup Binary Event Network. Pivit is available as an iOS app.

Live odds of the race – called PIX, for Probability Index – represent the percentage probability that something will happen.

Pivit’s website calls PIX “a dynamically changing, real-time measure of public consensus about the future outcome of an event.” The company rewards players who forecast the momentum of PIX – which the creators say is a valuable source of crowd-based consensus and a connection “between people, brands and the important events of the day.”

Other live odds on the 2016 election cycle (as of Friday) include a 51 percent chance that U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan will be the next Speaker of the House, 28 percent chance that retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson will take the Iowa Caucus and a 93 percent chance that former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum will suspend his presidential campaign by New Year’s Day.

As for the big prize, Pivit gives 60 percent odds that a Democrat will win the presidency next year.

Phil Ammann is a St. Petersburg-based journalist and blogger. With more than three decades of writing, editing and management experience, Phil produced material for both print and online, in addition to founding HRNewsDaily.com. His broad range includes covering news, local government and culture reviews for Patch.com, technical articles and profiles for BetterRVing Magazine and advice columns for a metaphysical website, among others. Phil has served as a contributor and production manager for SaintPetersBlog since 2013. He lives in St. Pete with his wife, visual artist Margaret Juul and can be reached at phil@floridapolitics.com and on Twitter @PhilAmmann.

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