An Oct. 28 survey from StPetePolls gives first-time Republican candidate Chris Sprowls a 13-point lead over Democratic incumbent state Rep. Carl Zimmermann in House District 65.
With only days left in the General Election, Sprowls has now pulled ahead of his opponent, by a margin of 55 to 42 percent. Less than four percent remain undecided.
A similar survey taken on Oct. 14 showed a much closer race; with a Sprowls advantage of only four points, 50 to 46 percent.
District 65 covers parts of North Pinellas County. In 2010, Zimmermann took the seat from Republican Peter Nehr; now the GOP has given Sprowls its full blessing (and lots of money) to get it back.
Although the district is part of the home base of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist, the somewhat conservative-leaning area favors GOP Gov. Rick Scott by seven points, 49 to 42 percent, with Libertarian Adrian Wylie under seven percent and two percent undecided.
The poll contacted 508 randomly selected registered voters from lists supplied by the state as of Sept. 4 and weighted to account for 2010 voter returns, as well as demographics for House District 65. The demographics were political party, race, age and gender.
Only those likely voters who participated in the 2010 and 2012 general elections were included. Results a 4.3 percent margin of error with a 95 percent confidence level.
StPetePolls chief Matt Florell said both the Oct. 14 and Oct. 28 polls weighted with a slight Republican edge, since they used the same turnout models from the 2010 midterms. Final numbers are likely to change, he said, particularly if Democrats are successful in their improved push for increased participation.
“It is best just to stick with a consistent turnout model for every poll,” he said in an email, “so that we can see if there is any specific momentum in some of these races over the rounds of polling.”
“This represents a best-case scenario for Republicans,” he added. “But I don’t think turnout is really going to be that slanted in the end.”