The ‘crapshoot’ Washington caucuses

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Pollster Stuart Elway tells Scott Conroy that any attempt to predict what will happen at today’s caucuses in Washington state is likely a futile endeavor.

Said Elway: “From where I’m sitting, there’s no way of predicting how it’s going to come out. They’re talking about 50,000 to 100,000 people participating, and you can’t poll them. We don’t even register by party in Washington state, so all you have to do to participate is show up and say, ‘I’m a Republican.’ So it’s beyond a needle in a haystack to try to poll.”

That said, recent polls from both SurveyUSA and Public Policy Polling find Romney leading the field.

Results are expected to start rolling in at around 8 pm ET.


12:43 p.m. – Politico’s James Hohmann: Romney’s modern campaign machine is turning into an old-fashioned get-out-the-vote operation here … Taking no chances after a close shave in Michigan, Romney and his local apparatus are here to teach supporters how to participate in the big event. … Most local pols agree that the former Massachusetts governor would easily win a primary, but anything could happen in Saturday’s low-turnout, non-binding caucus. Whether Romney supporters show up on a rainy weekend morning will determine whether he can win his fourth contest in a row, just three days before key contests on Super Tuesday. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are also competing in the caucus and could have a better at luring the more driven voters that make up the conservative base.”

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.