Nate Silver now forecasting an Obama win

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Nate Silver applies his statistical model for the presidential race — which includes presidential approval, economic growth, and opponent’s ideological orientation — and finds that President Obama has improved his chances of reelection, from a “slight underdog” in November to now favored to win the popular vote against Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.

“In recent weeks, Obama has taken a more populist approach (just read the transcript of his State of the Union address). The strategy has induced more howls than usual from Republicans about ‘class warfare,’ but the White House has clearly studied the numbers. In the Republican primaries, Romney has had trouble winning the loyalty of working-class voters, especially in the Midwest.”

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.