Nate Silver on why Obama is the favorite

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Nate Silver: “On average, between 1968 and 2008, the challenging candidate led by 10 percentage points in polls conducted just after his convention. By comparison, the challenging candidate eventually lost the popular vote by an average of three points in these years. That means the post-convention polls overrated the challenger by an average of 13 points.”

“The good news for Mr. Romney is that this tendency has been growing smaller over time. However, it hasn’t necessarily disappeared. In 1992, Bill Clinton led by more than 20 points after his convention, but his actual winning margin was only about six. In 2000, George W. Bush came out of his convention in Philadelphia with about a 10-point lead in the polls — but he eventually lost the popular vote. John Kerry, in 2004, got very little bounce from his convention. But Mr. Kerry nevertheless came into his convention with a lead, and he maintained it — then he lost the popular vote by about two points instead.”

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.