Eight months until the 2014 midterms, and things are not looking so terrific for Congressional Democrats.
Although Americans appear to trust Democrats more on critical issues, that faith has not translated into an electoral advantage needed to take back the U.S. House in November, reports Dan Balz and Scott Clement in Tuesday’s Washington Post.
In a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, Republicans are showing strength in the 34 states having 2014 Senate races, where 50 percent of respondents favor the GOP and only 42 for Democrats. Nearly seven in 10 voters (68 percent) say they will look towards a new candidate this fall.
It may not be the death knell for incumbents, who traditionally have high retention rates, but it does show the little regard voters have for lawmakers.
These new numbers give pundits, like Charlie Cook of the National Journal, reason to insist that the House “seems out of reach” for Democrats. He notes that President Barack Obama’s acceptance rate, hovering around 41 percent, makes it look “grisly” for Senate Democrats.
Helping the Republicans at the polls even further, Cook writes, was removing two main obstacles: the possibility of defunding the government, and the need to raise the debt ceiling by Election Day. Three Democratic seats are going to be a direct challenge, including open seats in West Virginia and South Dakota, with the newly appointed Sen. John Walsh not a sure bet.
The economy has also remained a sticking point in the eyes of voters. In the Post/ABC poll, nearly three-quarters of respondents (72 percent) see the economy as “not good” or “poor.” Yet, more than half (65 percent) say the economy is improving, based on personal experience, with only 18 percent saying that recovery is “strong.”
What gets near universal disdain with Republicans is the Affordable Care Act – a significant campaign issue for the GOP — where 70 percent say they would not support a candidate that favors the health-care law, whereas 57 percent of Democrats would. Independents are split more or less evenly on the subject.
Cook claims the ACA is even more unpopular now than it was at its inception in October, and the initial announcement in November of 2010. It was then that the Democrats lost control of the House by giving up 63 seats.
Five Democratic Senate incumbents will also have a tough climb — with Mark Pryor (Arkansas) at the top, followed by Mary Landrieu (Louisiana), Kay Hagan (North Carolina), Mark Udall (Colorado) and Mark Begich (Alaska).
But Republicans also face problems, only from within. Challengers from the Tea Party are taking on several Republican incumbents, most notably the half a dozen sitting GOP Senators.
Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, by a slight difference of 47 to 41 percent, views the Tea Party threat as being more bad than good.
Of those Republicans saying they are “very conservative,” six in 10 say such these Tea Party contests are useful for the party, as do more than half of those identifying as Tea Party supporters. Conservative Republicans are also somewhat supportive, 47 to 43 percent.
