New poll: Charlie Crist leading Rick Scott in Pinellas, his home county, 50% to 40%

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As a sea of data about early and absentee voting patterns threatens to drown out other media coverage of Florida’s gubernatorial race, a new survey from St. Pete Polls provides a stream of new numbers that may only further confuse those looking to make sense of it all.

Democrat Charlie Crist leads Republican Rick Scott, 50 to 40 percent, among likely voters in Pinellas County.

Crist leading Scott in his home county isn’t much of a surprise, but…

The partisan sample in this poll is +4.7 Republican. For Crist to be up ten points in a poll with that much of a GOP advantage does say something.

What’s also interesting is that this poll is made up of 53% of voters who say they have already cast their ballot. Pinellas County is leading the state in returned mail ballots.

Most interesting of all is the crosstabs showing Crist keeping 80% of his Democratic base, while Scott retains only 68% of Republican voters. Perhaps a smarter person than me can unskew the numbers and figure out where the race is in Pinellas when you factor in the number and composition of returned ballots with these poll numbers (hello, Marc Caputo!)

Like I said, we are drowning in a sea of data.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.