New Quinnipiac poll of Florida: Obama 45%, Mitt Romney 41%

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Voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania support President Barack Obama’s new immigration policy and are divided on whether the president or Gov. Mitt Romney would be better for their personal economic future, as they give Obama leads in these three critical swing states, a razor thin 4 points in Florida, a healthy 9 points in Ohio and 6 points in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

This compares to the results of a May 3 Swing State Poll by the independent Quinnipiac University, showing Obama with an 8-point lead in Pennsylvania with Florida and Ohio too close to call.

Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states – no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them – shows:

  • Florida:          Obama edges Romney 45 – 41 percent;
  • Ohio:                Obama over Romney 47 – 38 percent;
  • Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 45 – 39 percent.

“President Barack Obama has decent margins over Gov. Mitt Romney in Ohio and Pennsylvania and a smaller advantage in Florida.  If he can keep those leads in all three of these key swing states through election day he would be virtually assured of re-election,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“Of course the election is more than four months away, which is a lifetime in politics,” Brown added.

“The president’s overall margin is built on his big lead among women, younger voters and African-Americans.  In Florida, on the heels of the president’s order that will prevent the deportation of some younger illegal immigrants, he holds a big lead among Hispanic voters.

“The horse race numbers reflect the general view of voters that they like the president better.  Obama has a net favorable view among Ohio voters and he is viewed evenly by those in Pennsylvania and Florida, while Romney’s favorable/unfavorable ratio is negative in all three states.

“Voters in all three states voice strong support for the president’s mini ‘Dream Act’ immigration order, and they say the president would be better than Romney handling immigration.

“For much of the last year, more voters in these swing states have said Romney would do a better job on the economy.  That advantage has largely disappeared, at least for now.”

Voters in all three states are mixed on which candidate “would do a better job on the economy,” and which candidate “would be better for your personal economic future.

Florida’s Hispanic voters back Obama 56 – 32 percent, compared to 49 – 39 percent in a June 21 Quinnipiac University poll, conducted before Obama and Romney each made major addresses on immigration policy.

The president leads 85 – 6 percent among black voters while white voters back Romney 50 – 35 percent.  Obama leads 47 – 40 percent among women, while men are divided with 43 percent for Obama and 42 percent for Romney.

Obama leads 81 – 7 percent among Democrats and 44 – 37 percent among independent voters, losing Republicans 86 – 8 percent.

Voters split 47 – 49 percent in their approval of the job Obama is doing and 46 – 47 percent on whether he deserves four more years.

Florida voters give Obama a split 47 – 47 percent favorability, while Romney gets a negative 37 – 42 percent favorability rating.

Romney would do a better job on the economy, 46 percent of Florida voters say, while 44 percent say Obama would do a better job.  Obama would be better for their personal economic future, 46 percent of voters say, compared to 45 percent for Romney.

Florida voters support Obama’s immigration initiative 58 – 33 percent and say 46 – 40 percent the president would do a better job on immigration.

Voters disapprove 48 – 35 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing, continuing a 16-month string of negative ratings.

Florida’s U.S. Senate race remains too close to call as Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson gets 41 percent to 40 percent for U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, the leading Republican challenger.

“The U.S. Senate race between Bill Nelson and Connie Mack remains a dead heat with 17 percent of voters still undecided, an unusually large number,” said Brown.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.