New Rasmussen poll: Bill Nelson 46%, Connie Mack 45%

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After several months in which Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson appeared to have a comfortable lead over Republican Connie Mack in Florida’s US Senate race, the race is now virtually even.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the Sunshine State finds Nelson earning 46% of the vote, while Mack picks up support from 45%.  Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and another five percent (5%) are undecided.

A week ago, Nelson held a double-digit lead. It is highly unlikely that public opinion shifted 10 points within a week. That suggests either last week’s results or this week’s may be an outlier. Polling theory suggests that one out of every 20 polls will produce results outside the margin of error.

In August and September, Nelson had a lead in between these two most recent polls.

Nelson earns favorable reviews from 47% of Florida voters and unfavorable reviews from 40%. This includes 23% with a Very Favorable opinion of him and 24% with a Very Unfavorable one.

For Mack, favorables are 44% and unfavorables are 42%, with Very Favorables of 21% and Very Unfavorables of 22%.

Mack, a congressman, now attracts 83% support from Republicans, up from 71% a week ago.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Democrats plan to vote for Nelson, down from 91%.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 39% prefer Nelson, 32% Mack and 28% remain uncommitted to either candidate.

Just 15% of all voters in the state rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent. Forty-six percent (46%) say the economy is in poor shape. While 37% say economic conditions are getting better, 41% think they are getting worse. Nelson leads among voters who view the economy positively, while Mack is well ahead in the larger group that rates the economy as poor.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.