There are several reasons why I no longer gamble on professional sports, none as important as this: I was never very good at it. I just couldn’t help but over-think every wager to the point where I would almost forget which way I had bet.
For this same reason, I’m also not very good at making predictions about political outcomes. Occasionally, I am spot-on right. But I also often wrong. As with sports, I tend to over-think every prediction. I also like to hedge my bets, err, predictions against what I fear happening. Case in point, I predicted that Deveron Gibbons would finish second in St. Petersburg’s 2009 mayoral election, not because I actually thought he would finish second, but because I did not want him to finish in the top two and I figured me predicting it would put a hex on his chances. Gibbons, in fact, did not make the run-off, but I doubt it had anything to do with the whammy I put on his candidacy.
In September of 2011, I made another one of my hexes/predictions/wagers that I genuinely did not want to see come true, but feared would. It’s turning out to be the stupidest prediction I’ve made (so far) this election cycle.
I wrote, “(A)t some point in October 2012, the Obama Campaign will shift its resources out of Florida and re-allocate them to the Midwest.”
I just can’t believe how stupid that prediction is. I couldn’t be more wrong, in fact. Not only is Obama NOT shifting his resources out of Florida, he’s doubling down on the Sunshine State. And, as PoliticMO.com reported last night, “national Republicans acting in support of Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign have shifted many of their resources out of Missouri to the battleground state of Florida.”
Thank goodness I don’t have an account on Intrade – the prediction market that allows you to bet on non-sports events – otherwise I would be broke right now!