Post-Illinois, the brokered convention fantasy

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Ah, the brokered convention fantasy.

Jeff Greenfeld indulges in it:

[D]elegates who are bound or pledged to a candidate are only obligated to follow his wishes when it comes to voting for a nominee. And in most contentious conventions, it is a fight over the rules that has effectively determined the nominee. … Imagine a platform plank that repudiated health care individual mandates “at the national or state level,” a clear stick in Romney’s eye (and, I suspect, a sentiment the majority of delegates would embrace). Or imagine a proposal that the candidates participate in a debate in front of the convention before the balloting begins.

First Read does some preliminary math:

The earliest Mitt Romney could win the 1,144 delegates needed to capture the GOP nomination, per our count, is May 29, and that’s assuming he wins every single delegate after today. If you assume that he wins a 60%-40% split of the remaining the delegates, Romney won’t get to 1,144 until June 26, when Utah holds its primary.

Seth Masket provides the above chart and comments:

[M]y expectation is still that Romney will have this thing wrapped up before the primaries and caucuses are over. But it may take some time — NJ and CA aren’t until June 5th.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.