The contours of the legal dispute aren’t narrowing, as some legal disputes do at this stage of an election contest, but instead are growing… Ohio will be counting its provisional ballots for days or even weeks past Tuesday… Anyone rooting for a resolution Tuesday night (or early Wednesday) ought to hope that it doesn’t all come down to Ohio. If it does, it w ill be weeks — and one judicial hearing after another — before we have an answer.
Harry Enten made a guide for eight swing states. Here’s what he has to say about Ohio, which closes polls at 7:30:
No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. This year will likely not be an exception. Obama is buffered by a large African-American population surrounding Cleveland, as well as old conservative Democrats along the state’s eastern border. Romney benefits from evangelical support in the more rural areas in the western and southern sections of Ohio. Romney’s strength with white working-class voters has been slowed in Ohio because of Obama’s support of the auto bailout and Romney’s lack thereof. Obama holds a small lead in the polls: don’t expect the state to be called by the networks for at least four hours after closing.
