Q-poll of 2016 prez race in Florida: Jeb, Marco lead GOP field, but Hillary tops them all

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Even though President Barack Obama remains stuck in a swamp in Florida, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton dominates the 2016 presidential landscape, sweeping the Democratic field and topping former Gov. Jeb Bush and other possible Republican contenders by margins of 7 to 21 percentage points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Gov. Bush gets 21 percent in a Republican presidential primary in Florida, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio with 18 percent, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 10 percent, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky with 8 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 7 percent and New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie with 6 percent. No other candidate tops 5 percent and 13 percent of Republicans remain undecided.

Secretary Clinton takes 67 percent of Democratic presidential primary voters, compared to 64 percent May 1, followed by Vice President Joseph Biden and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts with 8 percent each. Another 11 percent are undecided.

“Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton may be taking some criticism recently in the news media and among some liberal Democratic precincts, but nothing has changed among average voters in Florida where she remains queen of the political prom,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“Two-thirds of Democrats say she is their candidate for 2016 and none of the others even makes it into double digits. Sunshine Staters are on top when Florida Republicans are asked their top 2016 choice, but former Gov. Jeb Bush slips a little and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio just about caught up with him.”

Florida voters back Clinton over Bush 49 – 42 percent in the 2016 White House race.

The Democrat tops other Republicans by wider margins: 53 – 39 percent over Rubio; 53 – 37 percent over Paul; 54 – 33 percent over Christie; 51 – 38 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

Independent voters back Clinton over Bush by a narrow 45 – 41 percent. Against other Republicans, her lead among independent voters is 16 to 20 percentage points.Clinton’s lead among women runs from 56 – 36 percent over Bush to 61 – 28 percent over Christie.

Florida voters give Clinton a 58 – 38 percent favorability rating, compared to 48 – 37 percent for Bush, 43 – 35 percent for Rubio, 32 – 28 percent for Paul, 35 – 36 percent for Christie and 33 – 30 percent for Ryan.

“Secretary Clinton leads the Republicans against whom she is matched by double digits with the exception of former Gov. Bush who trails her by 7 points,” Brown said. “Inside the Beltway they may be talking about Mrs. Clinton’s potential weaknesses should she run in 2016. But at this point in Florida, the nation’s largest presidential swing state, her assets overwhelm any vulnerabilities.”

Florida voters give President Obama a negative 44 – 52 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 46 – 50 percent May 1. Negative ratings are 7 – 92 percent among Republicans and 40 – 54 percent among independent voters, while Democrats approve 84 – 13 percent. Men give a negative 38 – 59 percent rating, compared to women’s slightly positive 49 – 46 percent.

Voters approve 49 – 37 percent of the job Rubio is doing and give U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson a 45 – 32 percent score.

From July 17 – 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,251 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The survey includes 451 Republicans and 457 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.