Quinnipiac poll for Monday: Mitt Romney 43%, Newt Gingrich 29%

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Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has a 43 – 29 percent lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among Republican likely voters in Florida, the nation’s first big-state presidential primary, according to  Quinnipiac University poll released Monday.  Only 7 percent are undecided, but 24 percent say they might change their mind by tomorrow’s election

This compares to a 38 – 29 percent Romney lead in a January 27 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University.

In today’s survey, self-described conservatives go to Romney 40 – 31 percent.  He gets 38 percent of white evangelical Christians to Gingrich’s 33 percent and wins 40 percent of Tea Party members to Gingrich’s 35 percent.

Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum each have 11 percent of likely primary voters today.

Romney gets a 64 – 25 percent favorability rating from likely primary voters, compared to 61 – 28 percent Friday.  Gingrich has 51 – 42 percent favorability, compared to 50 – 28 percent Friday.  Santorum is at 58 – 16 percent favorable, with a negative 35 – 45 percent for Paul.

“Gov. Mitt Romney is headed towards a double-digit victory that touches all the GOP bases,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.   “Romney carries every part of the GOP coalition, including the parts central to Gingrich – self-described conservatives, white evangelical Christians and Tea Party supporters.  If this margin holds up tomorrow, it’s hard to see where Gingrich goes from here.”

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.