Really??? Newt Gingrich has a 75% chance of winning Florida, according to

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Nate Silver projects a seven-point Gingrich victory here next Tuesday, but he adds a bunch of caveats. “Our forecast model currently gives Mr. Gingrich a 75 percent chance of winning the state. That seems like too confident a prediction, frankly,” he writes on the 538 blog. “On the other hand, Mr. Gingrich does appear to have a modest lead in the polls – and the nonpolling factors do not clearly favor one or the other candidate, in my view. So I would call Mr. Gingrich the favorite for now – but not a clear favorite.”

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.