Rothenberg: Allen West most vulnerable incumbent Republican this cycle

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A prominent national pundit unveiled his look at congressional races in November and maintained that freshman U.S. Rep. Allen West, ranks as the most vulnerable member in the Florida delegation to lose his seat to the other party, notes Kevin Derby of Sunshine State News.

The Rothenberg Political Report — brainchild of political analyst Stuart Rothenberg — found 201 safe Republican seats and 161 secure Democratic seats across the nation. Rothenberg maintained there are less than 75 competitive House seats across the nation with 29 tossups, 25 races where the Republican starts off ahead and 19 seats where the Democrats have the advantage. Rothenberg insisted there would be no “wave” resulting in a dramatic shift in the House with various projections showing Democrats gaining, at most, six seats — far from what they need to take back the House.

According to Rothenberg, Allen West, who is picking up a large portion of the area currently represented by U.S. Rep. Tom Rooney, after redistricting, is in a tossup district with a Republican tilt. West faces an August primary challenge from Martin County Sheriff Bob Crowder, still unpopular with some Republicans for backing Democrat Alex Sink in the 2010 gubernatorial race. Democrats have high hopes for businessman Patrick Murphy, who is expected to emerge from their primary contest.

Meanwhile, Rothenberg considers only 6 other Florida congressional races competitive; he ranks Vern Buchanan, David Rivera, Steve Southerland as ‘Lean Republican’, Dan Webster is ‘Favored’ over Democrat Val Demmings, Alan Grayson is favored in an open seat, while the winner of Lois Frankel/Kristin Jacobs is favored over Adam Hasner in CD 22.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including SaintPetersBlog.com, FloridaPolitics.com, ContextFlorida.com, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.