Rick Scott leads Charlie Crist 43% to 41% in latest Mason-Dixon poll

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New polling shows Gov. Rick Scott leading former governor Charlie Crist 43 to 41 percent.

In the survey of 625 likely voters, conducted Sept. 2-4, Libertarian Adrian Wylie receives 4 percent. The margin of error is  also +/- 4 percent.

Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Mason-Dixon pollsters cautioned the results are not adjusted for possible turnout spikes and weighted to show current Florida registration: 41 percent Democrat, 37 percent Republican and 21 percent other.

In midterm elections, Republican turnout often surges at least 4 percentage points higher than Democrats; Smith writes it is reasonable to assume Scott would have a greater lead if the sample “reflected the likely electorate.”

“Republican incumbent Rick Scott and Democratic challenger Charlie Crist remain locked in a tight race for governor,” says Mason-Dixon’s Brad Coker in a statement issued Saturday. “With Scott holding a narrow 43-41 percent lead statewide among likely Florida voters.”

Coker adds that other candidates on the ballot get 1 percent and 11 percent remain undecided. In April, the race was tied at 42-42 percent.

Other poll findings: Scott’s lead is strongest in North Florida (54-32 percent) and Southwest Florida (52-32 percent), and smaller in Central Florida (44-38 percent).

Crist’s lead is widest in Southeast Florida (50-35 percent), and smaller in his home base of Tampa Bay (45-38 percent).

Scott performs well with Republicans, men, whites and voters over the age of 65. Crist does beat with Democrats, women, blacks and voters under 35.

In the 35 to 64 age group, voters are split evenly.

Crist maintains a slight edge with Hispanics (44-39 percent) and Independents (40-37 percent), while undecided voters in both groups remain high.

Telemundo conducted the polling in advance of its hosting the first Florida gubernatorial debate on October 10, followed by an Oct. 15 Leadership Florida/Florida Press Association debate.

Phil Ammann is a St. Petersburg-based journalist and blogger. With more than three decades of writing, editing and management experience, Phil produced material for both print and online, in addition to founding HRNewsDaily.com. His broad range includes covering news, local government and culture reviews for Patch.com, technical articles and profiles for BetterRVing Magazine and advice columns for a metaphysical website, among others. Phil has served as a contributor and production manager for SaintPetersBlog since 2013. He lives in St. Pete with his wife, visual artist Margaret Juul and can be reached at phil@floridapolitics.com and on Twitter @PhilAmmann.