It has been a long, twisted road to replace 22-term U.S. Rep. C.W. Bill Young, who passed away in October.
But an examination of U.S. House special elections since 1980 by Eric Ostermeier of the University of Minnesota Smart Politics blog says that history gives an advantage to Alex Sink in Tuesday’s Florida 13th Congressional District.
The takeaway — women are two times more likely to win a special than a general election.
Looking over more than 7,500 House races after 1980, women won in 24.1 percent, or 34, of the 141 special election races, particularly in the 58 percent of those races having one female nominee from a major party. Compare that to only 11 percent of general elections where the victor was female.
After announcing her candidacy in CD 13, Democrat Sink quickly cleared the field — while Republicans wrestled with a number of rumored candidates, including Bill Young’s wife and son. In the end, it was Young’s former General Counsel, David Jolly, who would take up the GOP cause.
In recent years, House special election seats won by women have been more pronounced. Women won 21 of 69 (30.4 percent) of such contests since 1998. Since 2005, the number rises to 32.6 percent (15 of 46), and jumps to 37.5 percent since 2011 (6 of 16).
In more than 33 years of general elections, women won slightly more than one in 10 general elections to the chamber. They were successful in 817 of nearly 7,400 general election seats since the 1980 election.
That is just 11 percent, with its peak in 2012 at 17.9 percent, Ostermeier writes.
As for Republican women, they won a quarter of the 478 House seats held by females since 2000, and just two of the last 17 special election victories (out of the 60 races held during that period). Each of the last 12 women who won the special election seats since 2007 have been Democrats.
For special elections, women who win their party’s nomination have a much higher rate of success. Since 1980, when one female major party nominee makes it to the ballot, they won 54 of 141 House special election contests (38.3 percent).
Women are on general election ballots 22.5 percent of the time in the years since 1980 — 1,662 of 7,395 contests.
One (and only one) female on the ballot — against a male opponent — gives the woman better chances of success. Overall, in House special election ballots since 1980, women won over men 58.3 percent of the time, or 28 of 48 races, a number that has remained steady in 33-plus years.
In general election races with a solo female major party nominee, women win less than half of the time, 700 of 1,545 (45.3 percent).
So in the CD 13 race, the data does seem to offer Sink a small historical advantage.
