Curt Clawson defeated Lizbeth Benacquisto, Michael Dreikorn and Paige Kreegel to win a Republican primary Tuesday in Florida’s 19th Congressional District.
With 96 percent of the precincts counted, Clawson had 38 percent of the vote, Benacquisto had 26 percent, Kreegel had 25 percent and Dreikorn had 11 percent.
Based on these final numbers, St. Pete Polls had it mostly right about CD 19, while Public Policy Polling nailed Clawson’s win.
In one St. Pete Polls survey — a March 4 poll commissioned by this blog — it also had Clawson winning 38% of the vote. That was the first public poll showing Clawson with the lead (hence the headline about it being a “shock poll”), so it’s fair to say St. Pete Polls was the first outfit to publicly take notice of Clawson’s rise.
In fact, an earlier, private poll this blog commissioned St. Pete Polls to conduct also showed Clawson in the lead.
An April survey by St. Pete Polls still had Clawson in the lead, but that poll had Clawson winning just 30% of the vote. It also had Benacquisto in much better shape than she would finish, while slightly undervaluing Kreegel’s support.
Taken together, the two St. Pete Polls surveys show a slight directionality of the race — that Benacquisto had closed the difference with Clawson to four points instead of six — that obviously did not exist.
Obviously the PPP poll overvalued Dreikhorn and underestimated Kreeegel, but who cares, it nailed the only number that really matters.
For supporters of Charlie Crist, PPP’s accuracy in CD 19 should give them some confidence about the April 8 PPP poll showing Crist leading Rick Scott by seven points.