Democratic operative Steve Schale, in his “second-to-last” early vote update memo before the General Election, offers his take on Sunday’s “Souls to the Polls.”
Not surprisingly, it is completely different from the opinion of Tim Saler, his Scottworld counterpart.
Souls to the Polls, the final Sunday before Election Day, was “very good” for Democrats, Schale says. In one day, Democrats cut the GOP advantage by some 25,000 votes.
As of today, the GOP early vote and absentee ballot lead is just under 100k votes or 3.3 percent. In 2010, Schale notes that the GOP advantage was 12.3 percent or 272k votes.
This means that the GOP has lost 172K votes from their 2010 advantage, where Scott won in 2010 by 61k votes or only 1 percent.
As Election Day arrives if all things remain the same as 2010 – the closest comparable election – the GOP registration margin will be less than 2 percent.
Democratic turnout is consistently outpacing GOP predictions of a repeat of their 2010 performance, Schale adds.
However, Schale says the electorate will be more diverse in 2014
Black turnout has grown to 12 percent of all voters, a full point higher than 2010. Just this change alone would cut Scott’s 61,000 margin in 2010 to roughly 10,000 votes.
Among “sporadic” voters, those who did not vote in 2010, the Democrats hold an approximately 80K margin.
No Party Affiliation turnout continues to be encouraging to Democrats. About 40 percent of NPA who cast ballots in 2014 did not vote in 2010.
In addition, women continue to outpace men by 54 to 46 percent, which is even better news for Democrats, Schale says.
“Regardless of who wins,” Schale concludes, “I hope we can all commit to coming together. The issues facing Florida are too big for division.”