Steve Schale doesn’t blog often, but when he does, it is a must-read:
As Newtmentum comes to Florida, many in the media and the GOP establishment are arguing that the Romney advantage in absentee ballots will create a firewall that will hold off Gingrich.
According to the state GOP, roughly 225,000 Republicans have voted to date. Depending on turnout, this represents between 12-28 percent of the likely GOP vote.
Rasmussen suggests that Romney has an 11 point lead among people who have voted. My hunch is the Romney advantage is higher.
So what does Newt need to win?
Schale goes on to look at the turnout scenarios vs. the potential Romney leads. Click here to review them.