Steve Schale on Mitt Romney’s Florida firewall

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Steve Schale doesn’t blog often, but when he does, it is a must-read:

As Newtmentum comes to Florida, many in the media and the GOP establishment are arguing that the Romney advantage in absentee ballots will create a firewall that will hold off Gingrich.

According to the state GOP, roughly 225,000 Republicans have voted to date. Depending on turnout, this represents between 12-28 percent of the likely GOP vote.

Rasmussen suggests that Romney has an 11 point lead among people who have voted. My hunch is the Romney advantage is higher.

So what does Newt need to win?

Schale goes on to look at the turnout scenarios vs. the potential Romney leads. Click here to review them.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including,,, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. SaintPetersBlog has for three years running been ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.